Toledo vs Western Michigan: Western Michigan vs. Toledo odds, the Broncos are 6.5-point favorites at home, with the total set at 68 for the 7 p.m. ET kickoff. With two of the most successful MAC teams of the past several years facing off, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model says before you make any Western Michigan vs. Toledo picks and predictions.
The model made some huge calls against the spread in Week 8, including nailing LSU (-6) over Mississippi State, Washington State (-3) over Oregon and Alabama (-29.5) over Tennessee. And when it comes to top-rated picks against the spread, it finished Week 8 on a strong 5-1 run. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Toledo vs. Western Michigan 10,000 times. We can tell you it says the over hits in 55 percent of simulations, but it has also locked in a spread pick that cashes almost 60 percent of the time. You can only see that one at SportsLine.
The model knows Western Michigan’s biggest advantage should be its offensive versatility. The Broncos have gone over 500 yards in five of their eight games this season, and in four of those contests they’ve had at least 200 yards both rushing and passing.
Against a Toledo defense that has given up nearly 270 yards per game through the air and nearly 190 on the ground, that should mean Western Michigan can control the pacing of the game offensively.
However, Western Michigan’s efficient offense doesn’t guarantee a cover against the Rockets.
Western Michigan’s defense was extremely weak against the run in losses to Syracuse and Michigan to begin their season, giving up 642 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in those game. Meanwhile, Toledo’s offense has rushed for over 240 yards per game and 11 rushing touchdowns in their three wins this season.
Even with a 1-2 record in league play, that success on the ground has also carried over to MACtion. Toledo is averaging 225 yards rushing in conference and if the Rockets can establish their ground game against Western Michigan, they have the ability to make the 6.5-point spread feel much smaller.